Hock Hochheim's Combat Talk Forum

General Category => Gun Fighting => Topic started by: gematriot on September 13, 2013, 05:25:44 AM

Title: Boston University study finds link between gun ownership and homicide
Post by: gematriot on September 13, 2013, 05:25:44 AM

Researchers in the United States claim to have established a convincing statistical link between gun ownership and homicide, according to a new study.

The study, which appears in the American Journal of Public Health, challenges the National Rifle Association’s claim that increased gun ownership does not lead to higher levels of gun violence.

Covering 30 years from 1981 and all 50 US states, it determined that for every one percentage point in the prevalence of gun ownership in a given state, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9 percent.
Title: Re: Boston University study finds link between gun ownership and homicide
Post by: RevBodhi on September 13, 2013, 11:51:11 AM
The biggest flaw in this study is that they forgot to factor in the increase in general population across the board, and then isolate specific crimes with firearms correlated to the increased population demographics of those who regularly commit crimes using firearms (18-36 years) and then to see if there were changes in that demographics as well as in the older criminal perps (37-55).

Its typical of groups grasping at straws...unless very specific parameters are looked at carefully, I can pretty much prove anything with my stats except the truth of the situation.

CDCs actual study shows no real correlation to legal firearms ownership and increases of gun violence.

Just another desperate grasp at straws.

Title: Re: Boston University study finds link between gun ownership and homicide
Post by: gematriot on September 13, 2013, 01:12:28 PM

I agree about the improper use of statistics.

I am unclear about the following point:

“convincing statistical link between gun ownership and homicide” and “in the absence of state-level data on household gun ownership, the study used a proxy variable — the percentage of a state’s suicides committed with a firearm — that has been validated in previous research”.

Doesn’t that imply that the study didn’t have access to the variable it needed (state-level data on household gun ownership) so it used “something else to prove the point”?

I understand that the study says that homicides and suicides can be made to correlate with the other because if “there are less guns around” there will be less suicides (and homicides) using guns. I am not sure how valid a correlation this is.

Title: Re: Boston University study finds link between gun ownership and homicide
Post by: RevBodhi on September 15, 2013, 06:32:19 AM
Correlations only show a relationship and do not offer a cause and effect resultant.

Showing the number of homicides and suicides caused by firearms shows no cause and effect, ONLY that some homicides and some suicides used firearms to do the action.

Given the complexity of both suicide and homicide, remove all the firearms from availability and then see what tool is used to inflict homicide and suicide.

My educated guess would be, if nothing else changed in this society, the number of homicides and suicides would not change all that much. We would see more hangings and jumping off of high places for suicided and more homicides using baseball bats and screwdrivers, for example.

The only way to show cause and effect would be to conduct such a controlled experiment, which is beyond the human condition.

To show a distinct relationship, Boston University would have to find a social organization identical to the one they used to show firearms correlations that has no firearms present and then inspect that social order's rate of homicide and suicide per 1000 people to see any actual difference.

If the non-firearm group that was like our society showed far less suicide and far less homicide, everything else being equal, a correlation MAY exist that firearms availability may make it easier to commit suicide and homicide due to the efficiency of the weapons.

Even this does not show cause and effect, only that a relationship MAY exist.

From here a controlled experiment would need to be conducted, one showing a social order with strict gun control to a group with all things equal at a social order with no gun control and easy availability with a control group.

Long before there were firearms, humans killed each other with a variety of weapons and committed suicide in ways not needing firearms. Remove the firearms and the truth is people will continue to kill each other and the self, just not with firearms. I still don't get it why this fact is so quickly denied and refuted by scientists. Change the mind/brain behind the acts is the only way to stop homicides and suicides.

The problem never has been the existing technology, but the mind and brain behind all actions.
Title: Re: Boston University study finds link between gun ownership and homicide
Post by: RevBodhi on September 15, 2013, 08:26:48 AM
The kicker that can be thrown into the workings of all those studies, wanting to somehow prove firearms and firearm ownership are the culprits to crimes committed in this country, is that issue of illegal possession and use of firearms.

In 2011, the FBI reported that 72 LEOs were feloniously killed. Fifty of those LEOs were feloniously killed by criminals using sidearms, illegally obtained and possessed. The majority of firearms crimes are perpetrated by felons using a stolen or illegally obtained firearm.

Unfortunately, in the case of recent mass killings, nut jobs were able to obtain weapons through legal means, or took firearms from owners who possessed them legally. Yet, in retrospective assessment of these mass-murderers, each demonstrated overt psychological abnormalities that other officials either chose to ignore or even sweep under the carpet as: "Not my problem," or "I don't want to get involved." Mental illness issues are addressed in medieval ways in the USA, which leads to horrific events unfolding. Firearms are incidental here, a tool used, not the cause of the criminal act.

Looking at inner cities with strict firearms control like Chicago or Washington D.C. and New York, the illegal procurement and use of sidearms in criminal behavior are pandemic. The remedy to this problem in the inner-cities is a knee-jerk response that more control is needed, when the availability of illegal firearms remains a lucrative criminal enterprise. Law of supply and demand rules the inner-city gun trade. Until that cycle is broken, guns will be in high demand. Illegality only fuels the demand at the criminal level--more money to be made.

As far as suicide goes, that is another deeply complex psychological issue of which firearms are only incidental. An example hit home recently, when one of my own top students and instructor at DCAS hanged himself.

Here was a sensitive young man who was a former Combat Infantry Marine who experienced too much close quarters and hand-to-hand urban warfare in that fiasco known as Fallujah. He also owned an arsenal of firearms, yet, after a hard afternoon workout, he chose to hang himself in his basement instead of reporting to work as a correction's officer.

This 30 year old former Marine no more hanged himself due to the availability of rappelling rope than another shoots himself because firearms are available. My top student and instructor served right along side this man in the same Marine unit, doing the same house clearing, yet he has managed to adjust and is director of security of one of DoDs biggest arms suppliers. Suicide is far more complex than caused by the availability of firearms, in particularly, sidearms.

Tools are designed to do specific work, but without the hands and brains to manipulate them are innate hunks of material--nothing more. I am still amazed at how easily this fact goes away when people are busy stomping their piss-ants as they ignore the stampeding, raging elephants in the background.